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Understanding gas sector intra-market and inter-market interactions

How to assess the gas sector as a complex sociotechnical system governed by institutions and regulation?

Gerard Dijkema (on the right) (Photo: EDGaR/Jan Buwalda)

Summary

The aim of this research project is to explore and understand gas sector interactions. First, it analyzes intra-market interactions within the gas sector amongst technology, players and markets. Second, it analyses inter-market interactions between the gas and electricity sectors. It includes the technical infrastructure, power and carbon markets resulting from institutions and regulation.

The central research question is: how to model gas sector intra-market and inter-market interactions to analyze and explore infrastructure operation and development, determine the drivers and barriers to change and enable ex-ante evaluation of government policy and company strategy?

The project has three overarching objectives:

(1) To provide a systemic framework, ontology and models that connect knowledge and insights from a variety of disciplines — such as technology, policy, law, economics, complex systems and engineering.

(2) To enable the support of policy making and strategy development in the gas sector through models, simulations and tools.

(3) To contribute to an efficient and effective energy transition in northwestern Europe by thoroughly underpinned and quantitatively explored policy and regulatory recommendations spanning the gas market, electricity and carbon markets.

Theme: Changing gas markets
Leader: Dr. ir. Gerard P.J. Dijkema (University of Groningen)
Partners: Delft University of Technology, ECN, University of Groningen, Gasunie (research performed by DNV GL)
Budget: 1.8 million euro
Duration: January 2010 / December 2014

Participants 

Karen van Bloemendaal (DNV GL)
Catalin Bucura (Delft University of Technology)
Alfredas Chmieliauskas (Delft University of Technology)
Chris Davis (University of Groningen)
Gerard P.J. Dijkema (University of Gronigen) 
Marit van Hout (ECN)
Thijs Jong (University of Groningen)
Jeroen de Joode (ECN)
Bert Kiewiet (Gasunie/DNV GL)
Zofia Lukszo (Delft University of Technology)
Özge Özdemir (Delft University of Technology)
Edwin Woerdman (University of Groningen)

Book chapter

Chmieliauskas, Alfredas, Emile J. L. Chappin, Chris B. Davis, Igor Nikolic, Gerard P. J. Dijkema. “New methods for analysis of systems-of-systems and policy: the power of systems theory, crowd sourcing and data management,” in System of Systems, edited by Adrian V. Gheorghe (Rijeka: InTech, 2012): 77-98.

Weishaar, S.E., Edwin Woerdman. “New auction rules under the EU climate change regime: optimal prevention of market abuse?.” In European Energy Law Report VIII, edited by Martha Roggenkamp and U. Hammer, 207–222. Antwerp: Inersentia, 2011.

Journal article

Bollinger, L. Andrew, Igor NkoliIgor Nikolić, Chris B. Davis, Gerard P.J. Dijkema. “Multimodel ecologies: cultivating model ecosystems in industrial ecology.” Journal of Industrial Ecology 19 (2015): 252–63.

Chappin, Emile J.L., Andreas Ligtvoet. “Transition and transformation: A bibliometric analysis of two scientific networks researching socio-technical change.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 30 (2014): 715–723.

Jong, Thijs, O. Couwenberg, Edwin Woerdman. "Does EU emissions trading bite? An event study." Energy Policy 69 (2014): 510-519.

Proceedings

Bucura, Catalin, Zofia Lukszo. ‘A comparison between the two balancing regimes of the natural gas market in the Netherlands.' In Proceedings of the 11th International Symposium on Process Systems Engineering, 15–19 July, Singapore, edited by I.A. Karimi and Rajagopalan Srinivasan (2012): 430–34. 

Bucura, Catalin, Alfredas Chmieliauska, Zofia Lukszo and Gerard P.J. Dijkema. “Modelling the new balancing regime of the natural gas market in the Netherlands.” Paper presented at the 2011 IEEE International Conference on Networking, Sensing and Control (Delft: 2011), 68-73.

Bucura, Catalin, Alfredas Chmieliauska, Zofia Lukszo and Gerard P.J. Dijkema. “Modelling the new balancing regime of the natural gas market in the Netherlands.” Paper presented at the 2011 IEEE International Conference on Networking, Sensing and Control (Delft: 2011), 68-73.

Joode, Jeroen de, Arjan Plomp, Özge Özdemir. “A model-based analysis of the implications of shale gas developments for the European gas market.” Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on the European Energy Markets, Florence, 10-12 May 2012 (IEEE: 2012): 1-7.

Working paper

Jong, M.A.P., Oscar Couwenberg and Edwin Woerdman. “Does the EU ETS Bite? The impact of allowance over-allocation on share prices.” Florence: European University Institute, working paper RSCAS 2013/54, 2013.

Weishaar, Stefan E., Oscar Couwenberg, Thijs Jong. “The EU ETS spot market: a law and economics assessment of market manipulation.” Working Papers in Law and Economics, Faculty of Law, University of Groningen, 2012.

Other publication

Chappin, E.J.L., Chmieliauskas, Alfredas, Chris B. Davis. Map of the European gas infrastructure. In De Bosatlas van de energie, edited by Hendrik Leenaers and María Camarasa, 47. Groningen: Noordhoff Uitgevers, 2012.

Chmieliauskas, A. “Power generation emissions in Europe: a quick glance.” “Natural gas economics.” “Semantic gas.” Enipedia Blog (2011). On line.

Joode, Jeroen de. “Gasprijs immuun voor groeiende import.” Ensoc magazine 3, 2 (2013).

Joode, Jeroen de, Arjan Plomp, Özge Özdemir. “The implications of shale gas developments on the European gas market: a model-based analysis,” International Association for Energy Economics Newsletter, winter (2011–2012): 39-43.

Woerdman, Edwin, S.E. Weishaar. “Industrie holt emissiehandel uit.” Het Financieele Dagblad (5 april 2012): 8.

Conference paper

Özdemir, Ö. “Modeling investments in gas infrastructure under uncertainty.” 25th European Conference on Operations Research, Delft, July 2012.

Özdemir, Özge. “Modeling investments in gas infrastructure under uncertainty.” Economics and Management Workshop, Vilnius, July 2012.

Bucura, Catalin, Zofia Lukszo. “Shippers and network capacity booking in the Dutch gas market.” Third International Engineering Systems Symposium, Delft, June 2012.

Chappin, Emiel.J.L., Chmieliauskas, A. and Vries, L.J. de. “Agent-based models for policy makers.” 8th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association, University of Salzburg, September 2012.

Chappin, Emile J.L., Gerard P.J. Dijkema. “Emission trading.” Economics of Infrastructures seminar, Delft University of Technology, Delft, March 2013. 

Chappin, Emile J.L., Gerard P.J. Dijkema. “Emission trading.” Presentation to the Economics of Infrastructures group, Delft, March, 2013.

Chmieliauskas, Alfredas, Chris B. Davis, Gerard P.J. Dijkema. “Enipedia.” Energy Delta Convention 2011, Groningen, November 2011.

Chmieliauskas, Alfredas, Chris B. Davis. “Enabling collaborative energy analytics: Enipedia.tudelft.nl.” Third International Engineering Systems Symposium, Delft, June 2012.

Chmieliauskas, Alfredas, Chris B. Davis. “SparqlExtension: linking data.” SMWCon Fall 2010, Amsterdam, September 2010.

Chmieliauskas, Alfredas, Emiel Chappin, Gerad Dijkema. “Modeling socio-technical systems with AgentSpring.” Third International Engineering Systems Symposium, Delft, June 2012.

Chmieliauskas, Alfredas. 'Opening public data: enabling reuse, transparency and participation.” ENTSOG Workshop on Transparency, Brussels, September 2010.

Chmieliauskas, Alfredas. “Agent based modeling of energy markets.” Economics and Management Workshop, Vilnius, July 2012.

Chmieliauskas, Alfredas. “Agent based modeling of energy markets.” Presentation at the Energy ministry of Lithuania, Vilnius, July 2012.

Chmieliauskas, Alfredas. “Agent based modeling of the energy sector.” Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Delft, November 2011.

Chmieliauskas, Alfredas. “Modeling energy markets.” Climate Strategies, Brussels, September 2011.

Chmieliauskas, Alfredas. “Modeling energy markets.” Climate Strategies, Brussels, September 2011.

Chmieliauskas, Alfredas. “Understanding and modeling energy systems.” EC Joint Research Center, Petten, December 2011.

Correljé, A.F., Gerard P.J. Dijkema. “Aardgas.” Master Class Tweede Kamerleden, Delft University of Technology, Delft, January 2013.

Davis, Chris B., Alfredas Chmieliauskas. “Enipedia”. Delft Innovation Award, Delft, December 2011.

Davis, Chris B., Alfredas Chmieliauskas. “Enipedia.” Presentation at NATO Consultation, Command and Control Agency, Den Haag, January 2012.

Davis, Chris B., Alfredas Chmieliauskas. “The Semantic Web, R, and Enipedia.tudelft.nl.” Amst-R-dam, the Amsterdam Statisticians Community, Amsterdam, October 2011.

Dijkema, Gerard P.J. “Energy infrastructure and industrial networks.” Presentation to National Science Foundation representatives, Delft, October 2012.

Dijkema, Gerard P.J. “Recycling infrastructuur: techniek, bestuur en management.”Presentation for Students for Sustainability (S4S), Delft, November, 2013.

Dijkema, Gerard. “Exploring gas systems and markets.” Gas without Frontiers: DVGW-EDGaR First Joint Conference, Apeldoorn, February 2013.

Dijkema, Gerard. "Exploring the interaction between gas, power and CO2." Back to the Future of Gas: Energy Delta Convention, Groningen, November 2012.

Dijkema, Gerard. Organization of the session “Energy Infrastructures.” Third International Engineering Systems Symposium, Delft, June 2012.

Dijkema, Gerard. "Economic and institutional aspects of gas markets." Enabling Sustainability with Gas: Closing Conference of the Energy Delta Gas Research, Amsterdam, March 2015.

Jong, T. “Carbon exposure drivers in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme: evidence from energy industry firm-level data.” 5th World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists, Istanbul, June 2014.

Jong, T. “Carbon exposure drivers in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme: evidence from energy industry firm-level data.” 1st Energy Systems Conference, London, 24-25 June 2014

Jong, T., A. Zeitlberger. “Emissions trading by energy firms: in line with compliance?” Sixth Research Day of the Energy Delta Gas Research, Nunspeet, April 2014.

Jong, Thijs, Oscar Couwenberg, Edwin Woerdman. “Is the EU ETS relevant? An event study on the value effects of over-allocation.” 1st Research Workshop on Energy Economics of the Benelux Association for Energy Economics, Utrecht, September 2012.

Jong, Thijs. “Does the EU ETS bite? The impact of allowance over-allocation on share prices.” 32nd International Energy Workshop of the International Energy Agency, Paris, June 2013.

Jong, Thijs. “On the stock value effects of over-allocation in the EU ETS.” 25th Consecutive Workshop in Law and Economics, University of Erfurt, April 2012.

Jong, Thijs. “On the Value Effects of Over-Allocation in the EU ETS.” Seminar on Competition and Regulation, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute, Florence, of October 2012.

Jong, Thijs. “Presentation on the dissertation research design”. PhD seminar on natural gas and energy transitions, Energy Delta Convention, Groningen, November 2011.

Jong, Thijs. “Value effects of over-allocation in the EU ETS.” 25th Consecutive Workshop in Law and Economics, Erfurt, April 2012.

Joode, Jeroen de. “European gas market developments in different energy transition scenarios.” Energy Delta Convention 2011, Groningen, November 2011.

Joode, Jeroen de. “Impact van schaliegas op de gasmarkt.” Presentation at PvdA schaliegasdebat, Amsterdam, May 2013.

Joode, Jeroen de. “Is shale gas a blessing or a curse? A market and energy transition perspective.” The shale gas revolution: A blessing or a curse?, YES-DC Event, Utrecht, May 2013.

Joode, Jeroen de. “Unconventional gas: a game changer with implications for energy transition?” IIR conference on “Onconventioneel gas”, Rotterdam, October 2011.

Joode, Jeroen de. Presentation at Gas to Power Europe Conference, Shale Gas – Opportunities and Challenges for European Power Markets, Brussels, February 2013.

Weishaar, S.E., Oscar Couwenberg, Thijs Jong. “The EU ETS spot market: a law and economics assessment of market manipulation.” 29th Annual Conference of the European Association of Law and Economics, Stockholm, September 2012.

Woerdman, E. “Inefficiencies in the revised rules for EU emissions trading.” 3rd Annual Meeting of the Society for Environmental Law and Economics, Amsterdam, June 2011.

Woerdman, E. Presentation on regulatory failures in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Autoriteit Consument en Markt, The Hague, June 2013.

Woerdman, Edwin “Tradable permits versus tradable credits.” 25th Consecutive Workshop in Law and Economics, University of Erfurt, April 2012.

Woerdman, Edwin. “Inefficiencies in the revised rules for EU emissions trading.” 28th Annual Conference of the European Association of Law and Economics, Hamburg, September 2011.

Woerdman, Edwin. “Inefficiencies in the revised rules for EU emissions trading.” 3rd Annual Meeting of the Society for Environmental Law and Economics, Amsterdam, June 2011.

Poster

Bucura, Catalin, Zoofa Lukszo. “A comparison between the two balancing regimes of the natural gas market in the Netherlands.” Poster presented at the 11th International Symposia on Process Systems Engineering, Singapore, July 2012.

Jong, Thijs, Alexander Zeitlberger. “Emissions trading by energy firms: in line with compliance? ” Sixth Research Day of the Energy Delta Gas Research, Nunspeet, April 2014.

Van Hout, Marit, Jeroen de Joode, Ozge Ozdemir. “Analyzing energy transitions: the added value of integrated gas and electricity market modelling.” Sixth Research Day of the Energy Delta Gas Research, Nunspeet, April 2014.

Van Hout, Marit, O. Ozdemir, J. de Joode. “Short-term price and volume interactions in an integrated gas and electricity market framework.” Enabling Sustainability with Gas: Closing Conference of the Energy Delta Gas Research, Amsterdam, March 2015.

Kooshknow, Seyed Ahmad Reza Mir Mohammadi, G. Bas, Gerard P.J. Dijkema. “Exploring the interactions between natural gas market and electricity market using agent-based modelling.’’ Sixth Research Day of the Energy Delta Gas Research, Nunspeet, April 2014.

Verhoog, Reinier, Chris Davis, Amineh Ghorbani, Gerard Dijkema. “Modelling emerging institutions under various congestion management measures at gas interconnectors.” Sixth Research Day of the Energy Delta Gas Research, Nunspeet, April 2014.

Report

Bloemendaal, K. van, G.P.J. Dijkema, E. Woerdman, Ö. Özdemir, Z. Lukszo, G. Bas, E.J.L. Chappin, C.B. Davis, M. van Hout, T. Jong, J. de Joode, B. Kiewiet, A. Kooshknow, “White paper on modelling.” Unpublished report, 2015.

Woerdman, Edwinn. "Regulatory failures in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme." The Hague: Autoriteit Consument en Markt, June 2013.

 

Online data and computer model

Jaraitė, J., Thijs Jong, A. Kažukauskas, A. Zaklan, A. Zeitlberger. Ownership Links and Enhanced EUTL Dataset. Florence: European University Institute, 2013. Online: <http://fsr.eui.eu/CPRU/EUTLTransactionData.aspx>

Energy Modeling Lab, a suite of agent-based models dealing with policy questions on the long-term evolution of the electricity sector

Agent Spring Model, a module to enable agent modeling and simulation of hub-based trading

Enipedia, an active exploration into the applications of wikis and the semantic web for energy and industry issues ("Great source of energy data" — The Guardian

Video

Davis, Chris, Alfredas Chmieliauska. “Growth of 50,000 PV Installations in Germany.” You Tube. 15 November 2011. (Featured as a news in Scientific American

Delft University of Technology. “Enipedia-A Semantic Wiki for Energy and Industry Data.” You Tube, 12 November 2011. 

Media coverage

Heilbron, B., et al. “Wel of geen schaliegas – Neeknikkers.” De Groene Amsterdammer (13 June 2013), online. 

Kroeske, Jan Douwe. “Emissions-trading.” Debatlabb on Tour, Nacht van Kunst & Wetenschap, Groningen (2013). 

Entius, M. “Schaliegas: Fata morgana in de polder.” Duurzaam Bedrijfsleven (18 October 2012), online.

“Avondspits.” BNR Nieuws Radio, 8 November 2011. 

"TBM brengt de ins en outs van de gas- en energiemarkt in kaart." Research Review, Technische Universiteit Delft, 2013. 

The carbon market, a government failure.” Energy Delta Gas Research, 27 June 2013.