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The next fifty years: developing robust strategies for the gas transition

To help the gas sector to prepare itself for the next fifty years, what is a robust long-term sustainable strategy?

Kas Hemmes (Photo: EDGaR/Jan Buwalda)

Summary 

The long-term goal for the system centers on sustainability in the broad sense of the term; that is, including objectives such as minimum environmental impacts and non-renewable resource depletion, reliability, safety, affordability and societal embedding. Strategy development will look for the best strategies, explicitly considering the fact that a variety of future developments may occur, and that uncertainties exists with respect to these developments and with respect to future preferences and objectives. We will do so starting from the best available present knowledge on various aspects influencing system development. To complement the economic and market-oriented research in many other EDGaR projects, we will give special attention to exploring possible developments and issues related to technology development in a technology assessment study; societal acceptance or social embedding is studied in a second subproject and uncertainty is dealt with using dedicated computer simulation tools. Stakeholder participation using interview techniques and the Q-methodology takes place in an overarching subproject.

ThemeChanging gas markets
Leader: Dr. Kas Hemmes (Delft University of Technology)
Partners: Delft University of Technology, ECN, Gasunie (DNV GL)
Budget: 1.8 million euro
Duration: January 2011 / April 2015

Participants

Sylvia Breukers (ECN)
Eefje Cuppen (Delft University of Technology)
Els van Dalen (Delft University of Technology)
Sibel Eker (Delft University of Technology)
Floris van Foreest (DNV GL)
Kas Hemmes (Delft University of Technology)
Linda Kamp (Delft University of Technology)
Bert Kiewiet (Gasunie/Kema)
Andreas Ligtvoet (Delft University of Technology)
Donna C. Mehos (Delft University of Technology)
Udo Pesch (Delft University of Technology)
Erik Pruyt (Delft University of Technology)
Jaco Quist (Delft University of Technology)
Olga Di Ruggero (Delft University of Technology)
Wil Thissen (Delft University of Technology)
Matthijs Uyterlinde (ECN)
Jessanne Mastop (ECN)
Maurice Vos (DNV GL)
Sabrina Sauer (Delft University of Technology)

Book chapter

Cuppen, E. “Stakeholder Analysis,” in Foresight in Organizations, edited by P. van Duin. Oxford: Routledge, forthcoming.

Hemmes, K. “Exploring new production methods of hydrogen / natural gas blends,” in Hydrogen Gas Mixtures, edited by Marcello Di Falco. Dordrecht: Springer, forthcoming.

Hemmes, Kas. “Securing Energy Supply II: Diversification of Energy Sources and Carriers.” In International Handbook of Energy Security, edited by Hugh Dyer and Maria Julia Trombetta, ch. 7. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2013.

Quist J. “Backcasting,” in Foresight in Organizations, edited by P. van Duin. Oxford: Routledge, forthcoming.

Quist, J. “Backcasting and Scenarios for Sustainable Technology Development,” in Handbook of Sustainable Engineering, edited by J. Kauffman and  K.M. Lee, pp. 749-71. New York: Springer, 2013.

Journal articles

Chappin, Emile J.L., A. Ligtvoet. “Transition and transformation: A bibliometric analysis of two scientific networks researching socio-technical change.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 30 (2014): 715–23.

Cinti, G., Kas Hemmes. “Integration of direct carbon fuel cells with concentrated solar power.” International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 36 (2011): 10198–208. 

Cuppen, Efje, S. Brunsting, Udo Pesch, C.F.J. Feenstra. “How stakeholder interactions can reduce space for moral considerations in decision-making: a contested CCS project in the Netherlands.” Environment and Planning A (forthcoming).

Eker, S., J. Slinger, E. van Daalen, G. Yücel. “Sensitivity analysis of graphical functions.” System Dynamics Review 30, 3 (2014): 186–205.

Eker, Sibel, Els van Daalen. “Investigating the effects of uncertainties in the upstream gas sector.” International Journal of System of Systems Engineering 4 (2013): 99–139

Eker, Sibel, Els van Daalen. “A model-based analysis of biomethane production in the Netherlands and the effectiveness of the subsidization policy under uncertainty.” Energy Policy 82 (2015): 178–96.

Hemmes, Kas, J.F. Cooper, J.R. Selman. “Recent insights concerning DCFC development: 1998-2012.”International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 38 (2013): 8503–13. 

Hemmes, Kas, Josep Guerrero, Toshko Zhelev. ‘Highly efficient distributed generation and high-capacity energy storage.’ Chemical Engineering and Processing: Process Intensification, 51 (2012): 18–31.

Hemmes, Kas, L.M. Kamp, A.B.H. Vernay, G. de Werk. “A multi-source multi-product internal reforming fuel cell energy system as a stepping stone in the transition towards a more sustainable energy and transport sector.” International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 36 (2011): 10221–27.

Pesch, Udo. “Sustainable development and institutional boundaries.” Journal of Integrative Environmental Studies 11, 1 (201): 39-54.  

Wit, Hans de, Kas Hemmes, Giuseppe Barbieri, Young Lee. ‘Process intensification and fuel cells using a multi-source multi-product approach.’ Chemical Engineering and Processing: Process Intensification, 51 (2011): 88–108.

Thesis

Aftzoglou, Zoi. "Exploring Integration Options in the Energy Sector, Including a Case Study of the Integration of Solar Thermal Energy into a Combined Cycle Power Plant." MSc. thesis, Delft University of Technology, 2011.

Avgerinos, Nikolaos. “Super cool or ‘cool superwind’: Cooling as an additional product of superwind concept: a feasibility study.” MSc diss., Delft University of Technology, 2013.

Budelmann, Lennart. “Technology assessment of sustainable technological options for the Dutch gas sector: A refined methodology combining Multi-Criteria-Decision Making with Pathway Analysis.” MSc diss., Delft University of Technology, 2013.

Chaparro, Nicolás. “HyperWind: Facilitating the penetration of wind and solar into the energy market.” MSc diss., Delft University of Technology, 2013.

Elango, Chandralekha. “Towards a methodology to identify sustainable options of integration: ‘Hitting many mangoes with one stone’." MSc diss., Delft University of Technology, 2013.

Nederhoff, Sam. "Actor engagement in the BioGrid project: An analysis of the actor playing field and decision-making process." MSc. thesis, Delft University of Technology, 2012.

Pikaar, Ewout. "Stakeholder Engagement in a Shale Exploration Project: Supporting Societal Embedding." MSc. thesis, Delft University of Technology, 2011.

Roelse, Benny. “Strategic Niche Management of Biogas technologies in the Netherlands.” Msc diss., Delft University of Technology, 2012.

Remmerswaal, Sanne Maria. “The dynamics in the societal debate on shale gas in The Netherlands.” MSc. thesis, Delft University of Technology, 2013.

Ruggero, Olga di. “Anticipating public acceptance: the case of hydrogen.” Ph.D. diss., Delft University of Technology, 2014. 

Report

Figueroa, Fernando, Sanne de Groot, Mike van Paassen, Esther Park Lee, Anika Regett. “The future of the gas sector in the Netherlands: An exploration of the diversity of stakeholder perspectives and comparison with available future scenarios.” Delft/Leinden: research report, Delft University of Technology and Leiden University, 2013.

Proceedings

Eker, S, J.H., Slinger, and G. Yucel. “Investigating an automated method for the sensitivity analysis of functions,” in Proceedings of the 29th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, edited by J.M. Lyneis and G.P. Richardson, 2011.

Eker, S. and E. van Daalen. “Uncertainties in the development of unconventional gas production in Europe,” in 29th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St. Gallen, July 2012a.

Eker, S. and E. van Daalen.  “Investigating the effects of uncertainties associated with the unconventional gas development in the Netherlands,” in Third International Engineering Systems Symposium, Delft, June 2012b.

Eker, Sibel, and E. van Daalen. “Uncertainties in the development of unconventional gas production in Europe,” in 9th International Conference on European Energy Market, Florence, May 2012c

Eker, Sibel, Els van Daalen. “A supply demand model for exploration of the future of the Dutch gas sector.” In Proceedings of the 31st international conference of the System Dynamics Society, edited by R. Eberlein and I.J. Martinez-Moyano. Cambridge, Mass.: System Dynamics Society, 2013. 

Eker, S. and E. van Daalen. “Analyzing the Dynamics of the Bio-methane Production Chain and the Effectiveness of Subsidization Schemes under Uncertainty,” in Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, edited by  Davidsen, P., Rouwette, E., pp. 1-36, Delft: Systems Dynamics Society, 2014.

Elango, Chandra, Kas Hemmes. “Many mangoes with one stone: an integrative design methodology to produce multipurpose energy systems.” 2nd World Sustainability Forum, web conference, November 2012. 

Hemmes, Kas, Chandralekha Elango. “Multipurpose energy systems or many mangoes with one stone: an integrative design methodology.” Proceedings of 16th Conference of the European Roundtable on Sustainable Consumption and Production. Istanbul, 2013.

Conference paper

Cuppen, E. “Constructive conflict in energy transitions.” NIG working conference, Panel 16 ‘Energy and Climate Governance,’ 27-28 November 2014, Delft.

Cuppen, E., U. Pesch and S. Remmerswaal. Controversy as informal assessment in energy transition. EASST 2014, Torun, Poland, 16-19 sept 2014.

Cuppen, E., Remmerswaal, S., Pesch, U. Conflict and learning in transitions: an empirical exploration based on a Dutch shale gas case. Studying Sustainability Transitions in Welfare States , NWO/JSPS symposium, Rotterdam 10-13 sept 2014.

Cuppen, E., Remmerswaal, S., Pesch, U. & Dignum, M.  “Controversy as external peer review in energy transition: a case study on shale gas.” Paper for 5th International Conference on Sustainability Transitions - Impact and institutions  - 27-29 August 2014, Utrecht, the Netherlands.

Cuppen, E., Brunsting, S. Pesch, U.. Feenstra, Y. “Seeing things differently: frames and interactions in the Barendrecht CCS controversy ». 9th International Conference Interpretative Policy Analysis – Governance and Beyond: Knowledge, Technology and Communication; 3-5 July 2014 Wageningen.

Cuppen, E., O. Di Ruggero, and  A. L. Vernay, “Societal support for sustainable and responsible innovations: From public acceptance to regime acceptance.” 4S/ EASST, Copenhagen, October 2012.

Cuppen, E. (2012). “The blessings of conflict: learning in transitions.” International Conference on Sustainability Transitions, Copenhagen, 29-31 August 2012.

Cuppen, E.,  S. Brunsting, and Y. Feenstra, “Public (non)acceptance of new technologies: The role of frames in the dynamics of societal debate.” Moral Emotions and Risk Politics Conference, Delft, 20-22 Aug 2012.

Cuppen, E. “Transdisciplinary approaches for dealing with tipping points in public engagement with technology projects.” Leuphana Sustainability Summit, 29th Feb-2nd March 2012, Leuphana University of Luneburg, Germany.

Cuppen, Eefje. ‘Maatschappelijke acceptatie van schaliegas.’ Onconventioneel gas conferentie, Rotterdam, oktober 2011.

Eker, S. and E. van Daalen. “A systems modeling and exploratory uncertainty analysis of the future of the Dutch gas sector.” Energy Systems Conference, London, June 2014.

Eker, Sibel. “Analyzing the supply mix dynamics in the Dutch gas sector under uncertainty.” Sixth Research Day of the Energy Delta Gas Research, Nunspeet, April 2014.

Eker, Sibel. Lunch lecture, Gasunie, Groningen, November 2013. 

Eker, Sibel. “Investigating the effects of uncertainties in the upstream gas sector.” Benelux Chapter Meeting of the System Dynamics Society, Nijmegen, January 2013.

Eker, Sibel. “Dealing with uncertainties in the next fifty years of the Dutch gas sector.’ PhD Master Class on the Future Energy Infrastructure, Energy Delta Convention, Groningen, November 2012.

Eker, S., Els van Daalen. ‘Uncertainties in the development of unconventional gas production in Europe.’ 29th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St. Gallen, July 2012.

Eker, S., Els van Daalen. ‘Investigating the effects of uncertainties associated with the unconventional gas development in the Netherlands.’ Third International Engineering Systems Symposium, Delft, June 2012.

Eker, Sibel, Els van Daalen. ‘Uncertainties in the development of unconventional gas production in Europe.’ 9th International Conference on European Energy Market, Florence, May 2012.

Eker, Siblel. ‘Modelling and analysis.’ PhD seminar on natural gas and energy transitions, Energy Delta Convention, Groningen, November 2011.

Elango, C. and K. Hemmes. “Many mangoes with one stone: an integrative design methodology to produce multipurpose energy systems.” 2nd World Sustainability Forum, web conference, November 2012.

Hemmes, Kas. Lunch lecture, Gasunie, Groningen, November 2013. 

Hemmes, Kas, Eefje Cuppen, Jaco Quist en Udo Pesch. ‘Interactive session on the future of gas.’ Fourth Research Day of the Energy Delta Gas Research, Hilversum, April, 2012.

Hemmes, Kas. ‘Hydrogen production with high temperature fuel cells.’ Fuel Cell Europe Conference, Brussels, September 2011.

Hemmes, Kas. ‘Superwind and other multisource multiproduct energy systems for the production of hydrogen and electric power in the transition from fossil energy to renewable energy.’ Low Carbon Earth Summit 2011 Dalian, October 2011.

Hemmes, Kas. ‘Superheating as an additional benefit from carbon capture by MCFC's and DCFC's.’ Low Carbon Earth Summit 2011 Dalian, October 2011.

Ligtvoet, A., “Strategic futures for energy and infrastructures in the Netherlands”, Keynote Speech,  International Seminar on Prospective Analysis, Quito, Ecuador 21-25 July 2014.

Pesch, U., E. Cuppen, and O. Di Ruggero,  (2014). “The future of the energy transition and the public.” IST Conference, Utrecht, August 2014.

Quist, Jaco. “Backcasting in engineering systems: developments and challenges.” Council of Engineering Systems Universities Conference, Delft, June 2012.

Posters

Eker, Sibel, Els van Daalen. “A multi-method analysis of the robustness and effectiveness of gas sector policies.”  Enabling Sustainability with Gas: Closing Conference of the Energy Delta Gas Research, Amsterdam, March 2015.

Eker, Sibel, Els van Daalen. “Dealing with uncertainties in the Dutch gas sector.” Technology, Management, and Policy Consortium Meeting, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass., June 2013.

Eker, Sibel. “A supply demand model for exploration of the future of the Dutch gas sector.” Fifth Research Day of the Energy Delta Gas Research, Nunspeet, April 2013.

Eker, Sibel. “Exploratory modeling and analysis to deal with uncertainties in the gas sector in the next 50 years.” Poster at the Fourth Research Day of the Energy Delta Gas Research, Hilversum, April, 2012.

Hemmes, Kas, Eefje Cuppen, Udo Pesch, Jaco Quist, Andreas Ligtvoet, Sibel Eker, Els van Daalen, Floris van Forest. “The next fifty years.” Sixth Research Day of the Energy Delta Gas Research, Nunspeet, April 2014.

Ruggero, Olga di, Eefje Cuppen. “Stakeholder perspectives on the future of gas.” Fifth Research Day of the Energy Delta Gas Research, Nunspeet, April 2013.

In the media

"Public acceptance of hydrogen." Energy Delta Gas Research (24 June 2014). (Featuring Olga di Ruggero's thesis)

Nogepa. ‘Draagvlak voor energie vernieuwing.’ Aargas Update (September 2012). Groningen: JFB Multimedia Communicatie. Featuring Linda Steg and Eefje Cuppen.

Nogepa. ‘Draagvlak? De ‘do’s.’ Aargas Update (September 2012). Groningen: JFB Multimedia Communicatie. Featuring Eefje Cuppen and Linda Steg.

Nogepa. ‘Draagvlak? De ‘don’ts’.’ Aargas Update (September 2012). Groningen: JFB Multimedia Communicatie. Featuring Aad Correljé, Eefje Cuppen and Linda Steg.