No 1

Scenarios for the Dutch gas distribution infrastructure by 2050

Taede Weidenaar, Errit Bekkering and Rosemarie van Eekelen


In the Netherlands 98 percent of the households are connected to the gas grid. This grid, aging, will need investments. What are its system requirements in the future? No consensus exists on that question. Therefore, it is difficult to determine what to invest in. To help solve this problem, we have developed four scenarios for the Dutch gas distribution infrastructure in 2050. A structured scenario development process was used taking a number of existing scenarios as a starting point. The key forces that form the basis of our scenarios are the willingness and ability to reduce green-house gases and the perceived resource scarcity. Next to these, we have included forces that shape the scenarios, namely projected energy demand, available sources of supply, technological developments and institutional developments. The energy demand and the available sources of energy were quantified for each scenario. We have determined what the impact will be on the geographical scope of the grid, the type and mix of gases that are transported, and the function of the distribution grid in the larger energy system. We argue that these scenarios may help in dealing with the investment dilemma. They can be used to detail the possible functions of the gas distribution system in the Netherlands in 2050.

Publication information

'Scenarios for the Dutch gas distribution infrastructure in 2050.' By Taede Weidenaar, Errit Bekkering and Rosemarie van Eekelen. Working Papers of the Energy Delta Gas Research, no 1, 2012, pp. 1-31.

Includes a bibliography
Subjects: infrastructure, economics, scenario, future, energy, gas, the Netherlands

Edited by Jean-François Auger

© 2012 by the author(s)

ISSN 2213-6169